After the US airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Russia issued a warning: the risk of nuclear proliferation is approaching

On June 21, 2025, the United States and Israel launched a military strike codenamed "Operation Midnight Hammer" against three core nuclear facilities in Iran: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The United States claimed that the operation successfully destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities and used B-2 stealth bombers and GBU-57 "blockbuster bombs" with unprecedented strike force.

However, the geopolitical consequences of the action quickly emerged. Russia immediately stood up and strongly condemned the US action, pointing out that it not only violated international law, but was also likely to trigger a new round of nuclear proliferation crisis .

Russia issues strongest warning yet: some countries may be willing to provide Iran with nuclear warheads

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian National Security Council, posted on social media: "This stupid attack will not only fail to curb Iran's nuclear development, but will accelerate Iran's pace towards nuclear armament."

Even more explosive is that he explicitly stated: " Some countries are ready to provide Iran with nuclear warheads as a retaliatory response ." Although he did not name specific countries, his remarks were widely interpreted by the international media as Russia hinting that it is willing to assist Iran in restarting or even accelerating its nuclear program, or taking the opportunity to disrupt the global nuclear balance.

"A dangerous escalation has begun." - Medvedev

Moscow holds the world’s largest supply of nuclear missiles.

🔄 Nuclear proliferation risk: a real crisis or a bargaining chip in geopolitical games?

This warning quickly attracted widespread attention for three reasons:

1. It is not clear whether Iran has truly lost its nuclear capability.
   Although the United States released satellite images showing that three facilities were severely damaged, the IAEA said that some centrifuges were not completely destroyed. Iranian officials also said that they would "quickly resume the nuclear program."

2. The risk of "secondary proliferation" of nuclear technology is real.
   In the international legal system of nuclear capability proliferation, if a country (such as Russia) provides nuclear weapons to another country (such as Iran), it will seriously violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). However, in the context of great power games, it cannot be ruled out that some countries will evade international supervision in the name of "technical support" or "defensive nuclear deployment."

3. A regional chain reaction may occur.
   Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE and other regional countries may be forced to consider independent nuclear programs after feeling the potential nuclear threat from Iran, thus triggering a Middle East version of the "Cold War nuclear race . "

🌐 Strategic shift among China, the United States and Russia: Instrumentalization of nuclear threats in the geopolitical chess game?

This incident highlights that nuclear weapons are no longer just a defensive tool, but also a bargaining chip in strategic negotiations .

• The United States : Through precision strikes, it demonstrates to its allies that it “still controls the Middle East table” and paves the way for the Trump administration to rebuild its international prestige;

• Russia : Taking the opportunity to fight back against US unilateralism and trying to undermine the united diplomatic front of the US and Europe against Iran;

• China : It has stated its stance of "maintaining peace and promoting ceasefire" on multiple diplomatic occasions, continued to maintain its pragmatic and neutral image, and expanded its role as a mediator.

China is calling on a cease-fire in the Middle East while facing demands from the West to stop Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

🧭 Outlook: Are we at an inflection point in the nuclear order?

While the likelihood of an all-out nuclear war remains low, the more worrisome things are:

• The trust foundations of the global nuclear order are crumbling ;

• Non-nuclear states’ confidence in international mechanisms has declined ;

• The asymmetric confrontation between Israel and Iran is becoming increasingly unstable .

As the authority of the United Nations and the IAEA gradually weakens, more and more countries may choose the "nuclear ambiguity strategy" in the future, that is, not clarifying whether they have nuclear capabilities, but retaining "potential capabilities" to enhance strategic bargaining space.

✍️ Conclusion: The next step will determine the future safety boundary of mankind

Is Russia's warning just a strategic threat, or is it already operating in the undercurrent? Will the US-Iran conflict turn into a full-scale war? Will Iran really "retaliate with nuclear weapons"? There are no immediate answers to these questions. But what is certain is that this game in the Middle East is no longer just a local conflict, but may determine the direction of global nuclear security in the next few decades .