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Returning from the ruins: Khamenei may face an unfamiliar Iran

Jun 27,2025 | kamrytech

Returning from the ruins: Khamenei may face an unfamiliar Iran

 

Iran's brief war with Israel is over, but for Iran's 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the fallout from the conflict is just beginning. He has been virtually isolated from the world during the war, reportedly hiding in a secret bunker inside Iran to avoid an Israeli "decapitation strike."

Although the ceasefire agreement brokered by US President Trump and the Emir of Qatar has temporarily worked, security risks still exist and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly ruled out the possibility of an assassination attempt on him.

Now, if Khamenei steps out of the shelter, he will face a country destroyed by war - political disorder, military disintegration, economic collapse, and shaken public morale, which may be the real challenge to his authority.


🧨War leaves behind more than just ruins

Within a few days of the outbreak of the war, the Israeli Air Force took control of the skies over Iran, and several military bases, the Revolutionary Guard headquarters and even nuclear facilities were hit with precision. The Iranian military suffered heavy losses at the top level, and its military deterrence plummeted.

More seriously, Iran's nuclear program, which it has worked hard on for decades, has suffered a severe blow in this round of conflict. Although the Tehran authorities claim that its highly enriched uranium reserves have been moved to a "safe location", Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is on the verge of breaking down. Once it leaves the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Iran will be completely isolated.

Khamenei’s long-standing “nuclear self-protection” strategy is now backfiring on the entire country - not only has it failed to bring security, but it has also led to a devastating blow.

The war has left Iran significantly weakened



💥Cracks in the system surface

Although state television is still broadcasting rhetoric of “victory,” the cracks within the Iranian system can no longer be ignored.

According to reports, some former regime officials and religious scholars are quietly urging the clergy in Qom to consider the issue of "political succession." At the same time, ordinary people, while enduring the fear of air strikes, have also begun to reflect on the regime's 40 years of dictatorship.

"Is the cost of this war worth it?" - This has become a common question across the country.

Iranians have long resisted foreign enemies without supporting the regime. During the war, many people united to protect each other, but that unity was not for Khamenei's Islamic Republic.

Many Iranians may draw the line on a regime change engineered by foreign powers


🔒Towards repression, or towards rebirth?

Khamenei may still hope to achieve an "orderly transfer of power" and retain the core of the Islamic political system through arrangements within the theocracy. However, the situation he faces is out of control.

According to official data, since the outbreak of the war, nearly 700 people have been arrested for "collaboration with the enemy", of which at least 6 have been executed. The public's fear comes not only from the war, but also from the possibility of revenge from a damaged regime.

As Harvard University scholar Lina Khatib said: "Khamenei may become the last 'true supreme leader' of the Islamic Republic of Iran."



🚨The future: regime change, or total collapse?

It is generally believed that despite the rising discontent in the country, Iran will not "automatically change the regime" because of internal opposition. The reason is simple: there is almost no truly organized opposition with leadership. Long-term repression has forced dissenting voices to either be silenced or go into exile abroad.

If the regime falls, what may succeed it may not be freedom and democracy, but a power vacuum and greater chaos - this is the reality that many Iranians worry about.


✍️Conclusion: The end of an era?

Khamenei succeeded Khomeini as supreme leader in 1989, and it has been 36 years since then. He established an Islamic state that combines politics and religion and unified ideology, but the state is now on the verge of collapse.

Ayatollah Khamenei, who became leader in 1989, has been accused of setting Iran on a collision course with Israel

The war is over, but Iran's road to reconstruction has just begun. Khamenei may hope to leave a mark of "stable transition" during his lifetime, but how history will remember him will depend on his next choice.

A "post-Khamenei era" in Iran may have quietly begun.

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