Iran's top brass suffer another blow: Khamenei's political advisor was "precisely removed" by the Israeli military.

Iran's top brass suffer another blow: Khamenei's political advisor was "precisely removed" by the Israeli military.

1. Summary of the incident

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched precision airstrikes on Tehran and its surrounding areas on June 17 , targeting senior Iranian military and political advisers. Several key figures, including Iran’s “wartime chief of staff” Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani, were killed.

• Ali Shamkhani, a former political adviser to Khamenei, former secretary of the National Security Council and former Minister of Defense, was also confirmed to have been killed in the operation.

• Iranian officials have been slow to respond , neither officially announcing the incident nor issuing a statement at the leadership or defense level.

2. Background Overview and Strategic Intentions

• Since the beginning of this month, Israel has launched an air operation called "Operation Rising Lion", covering several Iranian nuclear facilities and high-level military points, causing heavy casualties among the leadership, including Revolutionary Guard Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, and the head of the missile force.

• The strikes on Shadmani and Shamkhani show that the goal has been upgraded from "tactical level" to "strategic cleansing": it aims to gradually eliminate Khamenei's advisory network and interfere with his decision-making mechanism from within.

• Reuters analysis pointed out that this series of blows has made Khamenei's inner circle "increasingly hollow", but it has not yet completely collapsed.

3. Why haven’t Iranian officials made any statement yet?

• Maintaining stability is a priority : The death of a political adviser is a highly sensitive incident, and the country needs to calm public opinion and maintain public confidence.

• Maintain strategic room for maneuver : On the one hand, we must demonstrate our strength to the outside world and avoid outright denial; on the other hand, we must leave room for potential responses.

• Diplomatic mediation is still in the works : Iran may weigh how to use this incident to pressure the international community in the context of the United Nations or multilateral participation in the Middle East, thereby creating space for subsequent negotiations.

4. International influence and future trends

• The situation in the Middle East remains tense : Striking the core advisory group may exacerbate the trend of regional conflict spread, triggering a new round of proxy wars and missile confrontations, and local conflicts such as Lebanon and Syria will re-emerge.

• Iran may use multiple means of response : from conventional military counterattacks, cyber attacks to diplomatic procedures (such as UN complaints and sanctions requests), with great motivation but significant restraint.

• The mid-term regime structure may be reshaped : If the deaths of important advisers continue, Khamenei may accelerate the use of new and more trusted circles, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei's influence is likely to increase

✍️ Summary

The deaths of Shadmani and Shamkhani mark an escalation of Israel's "high-intensity surgical operation" against Iran's top leaders. Its intention is not only to weaken military capabilities, but also to structurally shake the decision-making system. Iran's official silence is both a strategic suppression and a buffer for greater actions. In the future, the density of the Middle East will intensify, and the conflict chain may further expand. Global attention still needs to focus on strategic responses, nuclear negotiation dynamics, and power redistribution within the Sharia system.