Iran-Israel conflict escalates: negotiations, attacks and a triple shock to the oil market

Since June 2025, the situation in the Middle East has suddenly heated up again, and the conflict between Iran and Israel has continued for the fifth day. This conflict has not only caused a large number of casualties, but also had a profound impact on global nuclear security, energy markets and geopolitical landscape. The following are the three core dynamics and impacts of this round of crisis:

1. Iran calls for ceasefire and demonstrates flexibility in nuclear negotiations

Despite the ongoing fighting, Iran is trying to avoid an all-out war through diplomacy:

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has conveyed his "serious attitude towards diplomacy" to several European foreign ministers;

• Iran said it was willing to show more "flexibility" in nuclear talks if the United States pressured Israel to achieve a ceasefire;

• Iran seeks to resume indirect dialogue with the United States through Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia;

• Trump responded that Iran "has basically sat down at the negotiating table", but stressed that only a 60-day window was given.

⚠️ However, some people in Parliament proposed to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, showing internal divisions.

2. Israel’s precision strike severely damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities

Israel has launched its heaviest air strikes against Iran in decades, targeting:

• Communications facilities such as the Presidential Palace in Tehran and Iran’s National Broadcasting Corporation ;

• 15,000 centrifuges at Natanz uranium enrichment plant "severely damaged or destroyed" due to power outage;

• Two other nuclear facilities were forced to shut down, and airstrikes have killed dozens of senior Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists;

• Tehran's F-14 fighter jet was shot down and its airspace was basically lost.

📽️ TV footage showed Tehran residents queuing up to flee the ruins, gasoline and cash were running out, and city order was on the verge of collapse.

3. The war spreads affecting oil and regional security

This round of conflict is not a traditional proxy war, but the first time Iran has launched missiles from its homeland into Israel , hitting core targets in cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv:

• Bazan Energy Group's power station in Haifa was attacked, killing three people and shutting down its refinery;

• Israel's Ministry of Finance said 3,000 people had been forced to evacuate and 24 buildings had been destroyed;

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it used "new technology" to enable the missile to successfully penetrate Israel's multi-layered defense system.

📉Oil prices fell in response , down $1 a barrel, as the market expected the conflict to ease and concerns about supply disruptions to decrease.

🌍 War or negotiation? The future direction concerns the world

This conflict could become the biggest challenge to the Iranian regime since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The international community is facing a difficult choice between calling for restraint and providing assistance:

• If diplomatic mediation is successful, it may promote a new round of nuclear talks agreement;

• If the war continues to escalate, it will not only destroy Iran’s domestic facilities, but will also affect the Levant, the Persian Gulf and even the global energy system.

📌 Issues worth noting include:

• Can Trump broker a temporary ceasefire?

• Can the Iranian regime withstand the dual pressures of military and people’s livelihood?

• How will global energy markets cope with turbulence?

📣 Conclusion

This conflict is far from being a local friction, but a deep structural game - the nuclear issue, energy lifeline and the Middle East structure are being shaken simultaneously. The cost of war is spreading, and the window of peace is quietly closing.